Bihar Elections: Of the People, For the Political
This piece was written on 25 October 2020 and correctly predicted the Bihar State Assembly Elections, the results of which were declared by the States’s Election Commission on 11 November 2020.
Seldom does politics in India get as ‘real’ as it does in Bihar. That said, a total of two-hundred and three seats shall be up for grabs in an unprecedented assembly election in Bihar, which will, come November, become the first Indian state to exercise suffrage in a world wrecked by coronavirus. Given the change in the physical context, the polling will be held in three phases, with additional safeguards such as compulsory facemasks and extended voting hours.
Calculative coalitionism has remained the political normal in Bihar ever since Lalu Yadav outmaneuvered the anti-incumbent Nitish Kumar Government by keeping together a flock of 23 Congress MLAs from defecting in the assembly elections of 2000. Twenty years later, political alliances continue to determine the fate of Bihar as the core contestation for power remains between the JD(U)-BJP led National Democratic Alliance(NDA) and the Grand Alliance spearheaded by the RJD.
Post marathon-colloquies in the first week of October, the JD(U) and the BJP shook hands over an almost 50–50 seat-sharing arrangement: the JD(U) would contest on 122 seats, and the BJP on 121. The parties would be accommodating respective allies, former CM Jitan Rai Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha(HAM) and the Vikassheel Insaan Party in their quotas.
Nitish Kumar remains at the centre of the JD(U)’s political appeal. Known as ‘Bihari Vikaspurush’ with ‘good governance’ as his political plank, he continues to remain indispensable for his core voter base. His commitment to the needs of the Non-Yadav Other Backward Castes(OBCs) and the consolidation of the Extremely Backward Castes(EBCs) as a political group in the 1990s post-Karpoori Thakur period has consolidated his image as their unequivocal guardian. Voter fatigue over ‘real issues’ such as migrant woes and mismanagement of floods might wear down his popularity to some extent, however, a favourable record of welfare policies, a history of commitment to his core voters, and the 2017 conviction of Lalu which was the perfect fodder for Nitish’s accession as the lone strongman figure in the Bihari body politic, make it unlikely for voter displeasure to translate into strong anti-incumbency sentiments.
The selection of its nominees by the JD(U) reveals a tactical disposition suited to the complex social fabric of the state and the recent voter trends. While it continues to derive its core support from its traditional voter base comprising of the EBCs, the Scheduled Castes (SCs), and the OBC Kurmi-Koeri voters, it plans to make a mark in the Muslim-Yadav stronghold of the RJD. The JD(U) is fielding 18 Yadav and 11 Muslim nominees, in an effort to secure increased support from the combine, which Lalu spent years consolidating. Additionally, the representation of women in its nominee list has seen an increase, the move can be explained by the fact that recent elections in the state have seen greater female voter turnout than that of male voters. In the Lok Sabha elections of 2019, the overall voter turnout among women stood at almost 60 percent, as compared to 55.26 percent among men. Manjhi and his HAM would remain crucial for the JD(U) in cutting their losses among Dalit voters after Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party decided to jump ship and contest against the JD(U).
The NDA’s seat-sharing disposition reveals another trend: it marks a departure from that of the 2010 elections, in which the JD(U) contested on 141 seats while the BJP played second fiddle, contesting on 102 seats. The near 50–50 break up reflects a changing dynamic in Bihar, with the BJP gradually gaining ground over the years. In terms of vote share, BJP was the largest party in the 2015 assembly elections, however, it managed to secure only 55 seats since it lacked regional concentration of votes, which India’s electoral system rewards with seats. Yet again, the BJP has entrusted its seasoned poster boy Prime Minister Modi to strike the right balance between its Hindutva-hymn and Vikas-driven politics. Starting from October 23, the PM would address a minimum of 12 rallies in Bihar, alongside Nitish Kumar. Some early polls predict that the BJP will bag the highest number of seats, but it has reaffirmed its faith in Nitish as the leader of the alliance, irrespective of the seat calculations post-verdict.
Sans Lalu Yadav, the RJD has been consolidating itself around the leadership of his son Tejaswi. As per the Opposition Grand Alliance’s seat-sharing disposition, the RJD will contest on 144 seats, Congress on 70 seats, while the rest have been distributed among the three Communist parties. The RJD had won 81 seats in 2015, thanks to its dedicated Muslim-Yadav vote-bank. Tejaswi, who has been deemed by the alliance as its chief ministerial candidate, is attempting to woo voters on the promise of economic prosperity and spurring up industrialisation to create jobs. Without his father in the game, Tejaswi faces an uphill task, since the RJD would be contesting against the JD(U) this year unlike in 2015 when the two parties lined up under the label of ‘Mahaghatbandhan’. The exit of smaller parties- RLSP, HAM, and VIP will only make it worse. The 2019 Lok Sabha election in which it scored a duck, was a warning for a problem-ridden future for the RJD. The Congress, on the other hand, was able to secure only 27 seats in the 2015 elections. With the exit of JD(U) and other smaller parties from the Grand Alliance, it will contest a more respectable 70 seats as compared to 41 in 2015. This by no means could ensure a better performance from the dwindling grand-old party, struggling to find its relevance. The Mandal & Mandir politics since the 1990s have relegated the Congress to the margins, since 1995, it has never managed to secure more than 29 seats.
A pundit’s safest bet would be an NDA establishment headed by Nitish Kumar as the Chief minister. However, Chirag Paswan and the LJP’s sensational exit from the NDA selectively in Bihar and its decision to contest against the JD(U) but not the BJP has left some cold feet in the JD(U) camp. Several BJP leaders who were denied tickets also defected to the LJP on the promise of a ticket. The BJP was quick to break the ice and reaffirm its support for Nitish and deny association with Paswan’s LJP. However, in politics, opportunism often trumps a word of confidence, with a dethroned Devendra Fadnavis pulling strings for the BJP and its recent attempts at both, democratic coalition brokering & anti-democratic horse-trading of elected representatives, one cannot totally abandon the possibility of a queer verdict.
The election also embodies a generational transition: for far too long, the grapple for the corridors of power circled around two formidable man-managers, Nitish & Lalu. Both could claim to be the longest-serving CM of Bihar; the former in practice and the latter in spirit. Lalu remains confined behind the bars, and Nitish would be 75 by the next state assembly elections, Bihar is witnessing a change that it last saw during the 1990s, RJD’s Tejaswi Yadav and the LPJ’s Chirag Paswan are the next generational leaders looking to establish themselves within Bihar’s body politic. The JD(U)’s relevance without a reliable heir after Nitish remains in question, Tejaswi has big shoes to fill ahead of this election, whereas LJP’s muscle-flexing coupled with a wave of sympathy votes in fond remembrance of late Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan could just help Chirag score some early points.
